Stonegate Capital Partners has initiated coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD), a company that delivered $7.4 million in revenue and $0.6 million in net income in the third quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of negative $4.2 million. The company's legacy products continue to scale, reflected in $265 million in total transaction volume for the quarter, over 10,000 net new accounts, and more than 3,000 new verified accounts. Compared to the same period last year, new accounts rose 2.1% year-over-year while transaction volumes climbed approximately 41% year-over-year. Management reiterated typical seasonal strength, and Stonegate expects this strong growth momentum to carry into the fourth quarter.
Execution remains centered on opening the funnel and converting engagement into monetizable flow. The recent Bitcoin Gift Card launch has achieved retail distribution in approximately 2,000 Kroger stores, creating a mainstream on-ramp outside the app. Management noted that this is the first step toward an expansive retailer footprint. Data from gift card sales is still in early stages, but Stonegate anticipates that this will lead to wallet expansion at a negative cost of acquisition to the company. Additionally, Fold has engaged in a partnership with Steak 'n Shake that rewards customers with a $5 Bitcoin Gift Card, providing a scalable path for broad retail distribution. Across major products, unit economics are already positive at the product level, with the focus now on scaling distribution. Mid-funnel, Fold is expanding exchange access to more users and additional states and adding larger order funding options, including wires, which should lift average ticket and trading frequency.
Fold's Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card is emerging as the flagship growth lever, built with Visa and Stripe to deliver a premium, bitcoin-native credit experience. Rewards are advertised up to 3.5% on every purchase with no categories or deposit requirements, with bonus earn up to 10% at top brands in the Fold network. Management reports the waitlist has surpassed 80,000 and targets initial distribution by year end with general access in the first quarter of 2026. The goal is to capture greater wallet share than debit and to turn everyday spend into durable engagement that cross-sells into trading and custody. Management highlighted the card as a high cross-sell engine.
The company held 1,526 bitcoin in its investment treasury as of the third quarter, supporting a Bitcoin net asset value of approximately $160 million. Management views the Bitcoin treasury as a differentiated, lower-cost source of growth capital relative to issuing traditional equity or term debt. Fold has multiple funding levers, including a $250 million equity purchase facility tied to product momentum and market windows. In the quarter, Fold secured a $45.0 million revolving credit facility to support future growth initiatives and strengthen the company's financial position.
Stonegate uses two comparable analyses to value Fold. Their blended EV/Revenue analysis arrives at a valuation range of $5.42 to $7.71 with a mid-point of $6.57. Their EV/BTC NAV analysis arrives at a valuation range of $5.23 to $8.65 with a mid-point of $6.94.
