Daniel Kaufman, founder and CEO of Kaufman & Company, a family office and permanent capital holding company, said the wave of commercial real estate retrades following the Federal Reserve's September rate increase is separating capital that can close from capital that cannot, and that family offices investing their own money should be ready to step into that gap.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point on Sept. 16, and minutes released Oct. 7 showed most officials believe another increase would likely be appropriate by year end. Since then, The Wall Street Journal and trade outlets including CRE Daily and Citybiz have reported buyers pressing to renegotiate deals signed earlier in 2026, with some threatening to walk away. Trepp data cited in that coverage show 11.42% of CMBS loans were with special servicers in August, the highest share since February 2013.
"A retrade is a buyer telling a seller the deal was really a bet on the rate," Kaufman said. "When the rate moves, the price moves, and everyone downstream waits. The sellers, contractors and towns counting on those projects carry that uncertainty. We invest our own capital, so our underwriting has to work without assuming the next Fed decision goes our way."
The implication is that the retrade wave does more than reset prices on individual transactions. It tests the durability of the financing assumptions underpinning deals across commercial real estate, and it penalizes buyers whose returns depend on a narrow window of cheap debt. When those buyers reopen or abandon signed contracts, the delay radiates outward: sellers hold assets longer, contractors lose scheduled work, and communities wait on projects that were already counted on. Kaufman said the moment favors long-term owners over buyers whose returns hinge on a narrow financing window, particularly in housing, where a stalled closing can push back construction and leave homes unbuilt.
"This is when family office capital should earn its keep," Kaufman said. "We are not looking to win by grinding down a seller who negotiated in good faith. We want to be the partner people can count on at the closing table, because on a housing deal a delay is not a line item; it is fewer homes for the people who need them."
Kaufman & Company invests only its own capital and does not raise outside funds, a structure that removes the fund-life and redemption pressures that can force outside-funded buyers to retrade or exit. Its operating companies span housing development, design and construction, real estate consulting and venture investment, and this month the company announced BUILD 2030, a national initiative coordinating its housing, real estate and AI infrastructure work. Across the platform, thekaufmanco.com describes a permanent capital holding company founded by Daniel Kaufman and the trade name of Kaufman Family Office LLC and Kaufman Real Estate & Consulting LLC.
If the Fed follows through with another increase, the retrade pressure reported since September is likely to persist, and the premium on capital that can close without waiting on the next rate move will only grow. For sellers, builders and the communities counting on housing delivery, the practical consequence is that the identity of the buyer, and not just the price, now determines whether a project moves forward at all.
