As the final four months of the year begin, markets are turning "elephanty," according to hosts Andrew Horowitz and John C. Dvorak in Episode 816 of DH Unplugged, titled "Strikes, Spikes, Hikes." Published September 1, 2026, the episode examines renewed U.S. bombing of Iran, a sharp move higher in crude oil, rising bond yields, and a fresh wave of corporate winners and losers. The hosts frame September's classic volatility against a backdrop of eroding institutional trust and a Federal Reserve caught between political pressure and a wobbly labor market.
Listeners get a wide-ranging tour of the tape, with the hosts naming specific threads to watch. Crude oil has surged roughly 13% in two weeks to about $91.80, with diesel crack spreads flashing inflation warnings. This spike, driven by geopolitical tensions, threatens to feed through to consumer prices and complicate the Fed's path. Meanwhile, bond yields are climbing, reflecting investor concerns about fiscal policy and inflation. Horowitz and Dvorak point to the administration's credibility gap, with Horowitz saying, "The administration is the boy who cried wolf right now," and adding that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent "has really gotten a little bit crazed trying to manipulate the markets." Dvorak connects these dots to bond yields and the dollar, noting that currencies, equities, and even private valuations ultimately rest on one thing: trust. "It's a series of very large trust factors," he argues, warning that tariff escalation echoing Smoot-Hawley would signal that America no longer believes it can compete.
On the earnings front, Dell provided blowout guidance, projecting fiscal 2027 EPS near $25.50 versus $18.99 prior, on the back of 40% data center share. This highlights the AI-driven demand for servers and storage. Nvidia is reportedly pursuing a $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face, and the hosts also discuss the reported fallout between Jensen Huang and Sam Altman. In retail, Dick's Sporting Goods plunged roughly 30% as Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%, signaling weakness in consumer spending on discretionary items. Target faced a Halloween clown costume backlash, underscoring the landmines in brand management.
The deeper discussion digs into government equity stakes in Intel, MP Materials, and Trilogy Metals, and a lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement. Horowitz, who discloses a personal short position in Intel, questions why Washington gets discounted shares that retail investors never see. Dvorak contrasts the U.S. approach with China's state-owned enterprise model and flags GLM 5.3 Flash from Chinese lab Z.ai, reportedly trained without a single Nvidia chip, highlighting the global race for AI independence. They also cover President Trump's Fox News threat that Iran will be "totally wiped out as a country" if it retaliates again, LEGO's 21% first-half revenue jump, and the baseball-card casino economy drawing scrutiny from Japanese regulators. Friday's August payrolls, ADP, JOLTS, and ISM data cap the preview.
