Figures published in German environmental group Urgewald's annual coal industry database have revealed that new coal development is being approved at roughly three times the rate of cancellations worldwide. The findings arrive at an uncomfortable moment for the climate agenda, as two of the countries most active in expanding coal use are also set to host this year's COP31 summit.
Data from the report counts 257 new developments that entered planning in 2025, while 76 were dropped. The full pipeline now covers projects numbering 1,510 spanning power generation, mining, infrastructure and chemicals. Over 40 percent of tracked companies are actively building out their coal holdings, among them 335 companies with 606 new coal-fired power stations in the works, carrying a total capacity above 740 gigawatts, roughly four times the total output of the entire U.S. coal power sector. An additional 357 firms are sinking or extending thermal coal mines in 39 countries, and their planned annual output is approaching 3.2 billion short tons annually, equal to 41% of current global thermal coal production.
Australia will chair the COP31 negotiations despite holding the third-largest pipeline of new thermal coal mining projects anywhere in the world. Around 49 mines or mine expansions are in development domestically, 20 of them on previously undisturbed ground. The country is also the world's second-largest coal exporter and remains among the small number of OECD nations that have not committed to a coal exit timeline, even after signing a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap at COP30 in Belém.
In 2025, coal generated 34% of Turkey's electricity, more than any other source; wind and solar together reached 22%. Its government has placed electrification at the center of its COP31 platform while channeling more than $2.7 billion annually into coal support programs. This commitment gap extends well beyond the two summit hosts, with only 142 of all the companies in Urgewald's database having established phase-out dates covering their full coal portfolios. That amounts to fewer than one in twenty of the firms tracked with commitments to phase out coal.
Some tightening is visible in the financial sector, though it has not translated into reduced activity at the project level. More than 400 financial institutions have introduced policies placing restrictions on coal investment, and European banks have directed 46% less capital toward coal over the same period. Whether that trajectory is sufficient to slow the pace of new project announcements is the question that COP31 will struggle to answer. The reality is that coal is unlikely to disappear from the energy mix of many countries any time soon, which explains why businesses like Frontieras North America Inc. are still attracting significant investment into their programs.
The disconnect between summit hosting duties and domestic coal expansion carries direct implications for the credibility of international climate negotiations. If the countries chairing COP31 are simultaneously approving new mines and power stations, the summit's ability to broker meaningful phase-out commitments is weakened. For investors, the data signals that coal assets remain in demand across dozens of markets, even as Western banks retreat. That divergence between financial restrictions and project-level activity is likely to shape energy investment strategies and climate policy debates well beyond the summit itself.
