The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has upwardly revised its 2026 export forecast to year-on-year growth of above 20%, following stronger-than-expected performance in the first five months and sustained momentum in global demand for technology products. The HKTDC Export Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2026, released today, shows improvement in both key indicators: the Current Performance Index (51.0) and the Expectation Index (52.4), both rebounding above the 50 threshold, reflecting improved exporter sentiment amid evolving US trade policies and ongoing geopolitical developments.
AI-driven electronics boom is supporting export growth. Bruce Pang, HKTDC Director of Research, said: “The recent upturn has been supported by resilient regional trade amid the AI-driven technology cycle, which has been maintained despite lingering uncertainties in the Middle East. Overall, the outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has improved, with the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN remaining the most promising.” In the first five months of 2026, Hong Kong’s exports recorded a robust 36.2% year-on-year increase, underpinned by strong demand for electronics amid an accelerating global AI cycle. Electronics remained the key growth driver, accounting for more than 70% of Hong Kong’s total exports, with semiconductors and intermediate items performing particularly well. The proliferation of AI applications, including generative AI and enterprise digitalisation, has triggered a new wave of demand for high-performance chips, ICT equipment, and related components, significantly boosting Hong Kong’s re-export trade, particularly to the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN production bases and major developed markets.
Growth has been partly price-driven amid tight supply conditions. While demand has remained strong, a notable portion of recent growth has been driven by price. Tight supply conditions in the semiconductor sector have led to significant increases in component prices, particularly for memory chips and advanced processors. Wing Chu, HKTDC Deputy Director of Research, said: “The export value of key electronic components has risen faster than order volumes, with price increases amplifying overall growth. However, as production capacity expands and supply constraints gradually ease, semiconductor prices are expected to moderate. This may lead to some softening in export value growth over the longer-term, even as underlying demand for AI-enabled devices and infrastructure remains resilient.” Hong Kong continues to play a critical role as a regional trading hub, facilitating the flow of electronic parts and semi-manufactured goods across Asian supply chains and into global markets.
Structural strengths and risks remain. Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Projects & Business Advisory, said: “In addition to technology factors, steady overseas demand for consumer products has provided further support, reflecting the resilience of global consumption in recent months.” Looking ahead, several uncertainties could weigh on trade performance, including geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East; volatility in global energy prices; and policy uncertainties and rising protectionism, including evolving US trade measures and shifts among major trading partners. The HKTDC's 2026 Mid-Year Export Review and Outlook provides further details, while the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 2Q26 offers additional insights. More information is available on the HKTDC Research website.
