Two years after Tropical Storm Helene struck Western North Carolina, new data reveals that Buncombe County has undergone the most dramatic reversal in domestic migration of any large county in the United States. According to an analysis by Asheville-based Dry Ridge Moving, the county saw its net domestic migration plummet from a gain of 1,768 people in the year before the storm to a loss of 2,056 in the year after—a swing of 13.7 net movers per 1,000 residents. This is the largest such reversal among the 620 U.S. counties with at least 100,000 residents. The shift left Buncombe with 1,810 fewer residents in July 2025 than a year earlier, marking the county's first annual population decline since at least 2000.
The housing market has also felt the impact. Active home listings in Buncombe County more than doubled from 886 in August 2024 to 1,799 in August 2026, a 103 percent increase compared to a 25 percent rise nationally. The median time a home spends on the market jumped from 54 to 78 days, and Zillow's typical home value fell 5.6 percent between September 2024 and July 2026, while national values rose 1.1 percent. These figures suggest a cooling market as demand weakens.
The local labor force has contracted as well. Buncombe County's civilian labor force stood at 135,287 in July 2026, down 5.8 percent from July 2024, far exceeding the statewide decline of 1.2 percent. Although the unemployment rate was 3.4 percent in July 2026, the shrinking workforce indicates that many working-age residents have left the area, potentially constraining economic recovery.
While the broader region of 23 Helene-declared counties continued to grow, net domestic migration fell 54.5 percent, from 9,183 to 4,180. Henderson County still added 1,089 residents. Pre-storm IRS data from 2022 and 2023 shows that Florida was the leading source of new households for several counties, including Buncombe, while South Carolina was the top destination for those leaving. The full study is available on the Dry Ridge Moving website.
The implications of these trends are significant. A sustained population loss could reduce the tax base, strain public services, and alter the region's economic trajectory. The doubling of housing inventory may provide opportunities for remaining residents but also signals reduced demand. The labor force contraction could hinder business growth and recovery efforts. The study notes that Census estimates are revised annually and may not fully capture temporary displacement, and that 2026 labor force figures are preliminary. The next county population estimates, expected in spring 2027, will reveal whether the migration reversal continues or stabilizes.
