BHP Chief Financial Officer Vandita Pant has warned that the international copper market could face a structural supply deficit beginning in 2028, with the shortfall expected to be equivalent to the output of eight to ten mines the size of Escondida, the world's largest copper producer. Speaking at the FT Metals and Mining Summit in London, Pant explained that the increase in annual supply needed by the mid-2030s to meet growing consumption is not materializing, setting the stage for a prolonged market imbalance.
The implications are significant for the global economy. Copper is a critical input for power grids, electric vehicles, and renewable energy systems, and a sustained deficit could drive prices higher, increase costs for manufacturers, and accelerate the search for new sources of supply. Pant noted that declining production from existing deposits is already pressuring supply, making new mine development essential just to maintain current output levels. Traditional sources of consumption, such as population growth and urbanization, are now being compounded by expanding digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and electricity network investment. By 2050, annual global copper demand is projected to exceed 50 million metric tons, with data centers alone potentially consuming 3 million metric tons per year.
However, Pant distinguished between the long-term structural gap and near-term market tightness. She explained that temporary imbalances can arise when mining companies miss production targets, and recent disruptions have already constrained output. The International Copper Study Group recently lowered its forecast for global mine production growth to 1.3% for the year, reflecting downward revisions in Indonesia, China, and Chile, though it expects growth to exceed 3% in 2027. Pant added that near-term consumption could fluctuate with AI-driven demand expectations and investment activity, but such movements do not alter BHP's longer-term outlook.
BHP, the world's largest copper producer, is positioning itself for the expected deficit. Copper accounted for over 50% of its underlying EBITDA for the first time in the 2025/26 financial year, and the company aims to lift attributable copper output to approximately 2 million metric tons by 2035, with average annual growth of around 5% in copper-equivalent production between the 2026/27 and 2034/35 financial years. Planned initiatives include expansions at Copper South Australia and Escondida, as well as the Vicuna joint venture and the Resolution project in the U.S.
If the predicted shortage materializes, it could create opportunities for junior miners and explorers. Companies such as Numa Numa Resources Inc. stand to benefit from higher demand and prices if their exploration and development efforts reach production. The announcement, reported by MiningNewsWire, underscores the growing importance of copper in the global energy transition and the challenges of bringing new supply online in time to meet accelerating demand.
