Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ:AMTX) following the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings report. The results highlight a pivotal shift in Aemetis's operations, as the company achieved positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, signaling that its strategic initiatives are beginning to bear fruit.
Revenue for the quarter increased 20% year-over-year and 15% sequentially to $62.7 million, which was below consensus estimates of $68.6 million. However, the revenue variance was largely due to timing of India's OMC tender, masking stronger underlying performance. Gross profit improved to $13.5 million from a loss of $3.4 million in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA swung to $9.7 million from negative $5.8 million. These improvements were driven by quarterly 45Z credit recognition, higher renewable natural gas (RNG) production, and improved ethanol economics, which more than offset the weaker India revenue.
The dairy RNG segment remains the most significant growth driver. Sales volume rose 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu, and segment gross profit increased to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. The company has seven approved LCFS pathways with an average negative carbon intensity of 380, which are enhancing credit economics. Additionally, six more pathways are nearing approval, and two digesters are expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026, providing further runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
The Keyes earnings bridge is also advancing, with the MVR unit targeted for operation by year-end 2026. Management estimates this could generate approximately $32 million in annual value from reduced natural gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operational improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027, but the balance sheet remains a primary constraint. As of the end of the quarter, Aemetis had $1.0 million in unrestricted cash and $415.9 million in total debt. Refinancing progress will be crucial to translating operating improvement into durable free cash flow.
Stonegate Capital Partners, a capital markets advisory firm, provides this update as part of its ongoing research coverage. The full announcement, including additional details and downloadable images, can be accessed at Stonegate's website.
